Chavda, Digant, Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Penn State University, 556 White Course Dr, University Park, PA, 16802, dmc6948@psu.edu; Rahaf, Hasan, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Pittsburgh ; Papakonstantinou, Kostas, Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Penn State University; Warn, Gordon, Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Penn State University; Raj, Cibin, Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Agricultural and Biological Engineering The Penn State University, McPhillips, Lauren, Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Agricultural and Biological Engineering The Penn State University, lxm500@psu.edu.
This study investigates the impact of climate change on a flood-prone region in central Pennsylvania—the Swatara Creek watershed—by integrating global climate model (GCM) projections with hydrologic and hydraulic simulations and risk-based damage assessments. Using a calibrated hydrologic model and an ensemble of IPCC AR6 GCMs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and 5-8.5, we simulate future streamflow conditions through 2100. These climate-informed streamflow projections are coupled with 2D hydraulic models to simulate flood inundation for multi-day high-flow events exceeding historical flood thresholds in the region, identifying at-risk infrastructure.
To further quantify economic flood losses, FEMA’s HAZUS flood damage function and a property tax assessor’s dataset are integrated into the modeling framework. The study also examines the feasibility and effectiveness of various flood mitigation strategies, including nature-based solutions (e.g., wet basins, floodplain reconnection) and policy-based interventions (e.g., elevating structures, property buyouts).
The study addresses three key questions:
1. How will climate change reshape the streamflow dynamics in the Swatara Creek watershed over the 21st century?
2. What are the economic consequences of varying flood extents for urban infrastructure in the region under climate scenarios?
3. How feasible and effective are NbS and policy-based alternatives in reducing flood risk and associated damages in the Swatara Creek watershed, in changing climate scenarios?
The outcomes of this study provide a data-driven assessment of future flood risks and evaluate the feasibility of flood mitigation strategies to enhance flood resilience in the Swatara Creek watershed. The findings contribute to regional adaptation planning and underscore the importance of integrated, sustainable approaches to flood management under changing climatic conditions.
Flood-risk assessment, Climate change, Pennsylvania, Mitigation strategies